The Bundesliga 2018/2019 campaign will come to an end on Saturday, as we have witnessed nine months of fantastic football amalgamated in one of the greatest title races in recent times.
Unlike recent seasons, Bayern Munich haven’t walked away with the title, and they go into the final game needing a result in order to win the title. Borussia Dortmund, who have lead the way for over half a season, still have a miniscule chance of winning the league.
Elsewhere, there is still a huge fight for the 4th Champions League spot, with four teams still within mathematically distance, whilst the rest of the league is done and dusted.
I will now provide insight for the teams that can finish 1st, and can finish in the top 4th, and their chances of doing so. Let’s start from the top.
Bayern Munich – Gunning for a 7th consecutive Title
Position Before Final Match Day: 1st
Expected Position after Match Day: 1st
Final Fixture: Home vs Eintracht Frankfurt (5th in table)
What do they need: All Bayern Munich need is a draw or win against Frankfurt, and they’ll be crowned champions. If they lose, but Dortmund do not win their game, Bayern Munich will still win the title.
Scenario they don’t win the league: If Bayern Munich lose, and Borussia Dortmund win the final game. Bayern Munich will then finish 2nd.
Odds of winning the league: 1/100
We have seen some crazy football in recent weeks, and some of the most unlikely scenarios, comebacks and results. However, if the German giants lose on their final match day, their first home league defeat since October, coupling with a Dortmund win, would surely be the most astounding outcome of the season. Bayern Munich haven’t lost a league game since February at have won every home game since November.
Bayern Munich are at 1/4 to get the home win, or at 1/25 to get a win or draw.
Borussia Dortmund – Can the miracle happen?
Position Before Final Match Day: 2nd
Expected Position after Match Day: 2nd
Final Fixture: Away vs Borussia Monchengladbach (4th in table)
What do they need? A win against Borussia Monchengladbach, and Bayern Munich to lose to Frankfurt.
Scenario they don’t win the league: Any failure in getting a win, or Bayern Munich picking up at least a point in their game will see them finish 2nd instead of 1st.
Odds of winning the league: 16/1
It’s important to know that if the crazy outcome of Bayern Munich losing at home on the final day does occur, then Dortmund still need to win a game away from home. This is something that has only happened twice in their last seven away games. They are priced at 11/10 to get that vital victory.
Borussia Monchengladbach – Will they fall out of top four at the last?
Position Before Final Match Day: 4th
Expected Position after Match Day: 5th
Final Fixture: Home vs Borussia Dortmund (2nd)
What do they need? They need to match or better the result of both Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen.
Scenario of finishing in 5th or 6th (Europa League): If they lose to Dortmund, they’ll be overtaken by Frankfurt if they win, or overtaken by Bayer Leverkusen if they draw. If they draw to Dortmund, then they’ll still need to hope that Frankfurt or Bayer Leverkusen do not win. If they win their final game, but Bayer Leverkusen win with a 2+ goal swing, then Monchengladbach will also miss out on Champions League.
Odds of finishing in the top four: 3/1
Monchengladbach have been in the top four for the majority of the season, but they are overwhelming favourites to drop out on the last day. The main reason for this is because they have a difficult game against Dortmund, and their home record is abysmal – not winning a home league match since the end of January.
Bayer Leverkusen – Favourites for top four
Position Before Final Match Day: 5th
Expected Position after Match Day: 4th
Final Fixture: Away vs Hertha Berlin (10th)
What do they need: Winning their final game would see them go 4th if Monchengladbach don’t win their game, and drawing the final game would also see them go 4th if Monchengladbach lose. In a rare scenario, even a defeat would, as long as Frankfurt lose and Monchengladbach lose by a 2+ goal swing.
Scenario of finishing in 5th or 6th (Europa League): If Frankfurt or Borussia Monchengladbach better their result.
Odds of finishing in the top four: 2/7
Despite stumbling in their last match at home in a 1-1 draw with Schalke, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team at the moment, winning the previous four matches including a 6-1 win over Frankfurt. They’ll fancy their chances at Hertha Berlin (4/9 to win), and a win should see them finish 4th, but it’s no forgone conclusion.
Eintracht Frankfurt – Do they have any more to give?
Position Before Final Match Day: 6th
Expected Position after Match Day: 7th
Final Fixture: Away vs Bayern Munich (1st)
Scenario of finishing in the top four: They’ll need to win at Bayern Munich on the final day, and hope that Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen fail to win their respective fixtures.
Scenario of finishing in 5th or 6th (Europa League): They’ll need to make sure that they at least match Wolfsburg’s final result, or better the result of at least Monchengladbach or Bayer Leverkusen.
Odds of finishing in the top four: 25/1
Frankfurt fans had so much optimism just two weeks ago, with their semi-final Europa League match with Chelsea on the horizon, as well as favourites for the top four. However, losing back to back against Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz, means that the Champions League place is highly unlikely, and they could even drop to 7th. They are at 10/1 to beat Bayern Munich, and even that might not be enough for top 4.
Wolfsburg – The Supporting Cast
Position Before Final Match Day: 7th
Expected Position after Match Day: 6th
Final Fixture: Home to Augsburg (14th)
Scenario of finishing in the top four: They need cricket scores. Well, they need to beat Augsburg, and hope that Frankfurt don’t win, and both Bayer Leverkusen and Monchengladbach lose with a 10+ goal swing.
Scenario of finishing in 5th or 6th (Europa League): This is far more likely. They’ll need to win, and hope that Frankfurt lose, or Monchengladbach or Bayer Leverkusen lose by a 10+ goal swing.
Odds of finishing in the top four: 1,000/1
Wolfsburg are simply just the supporting cast for the top four race, but are favourites to overtake Frankfurt in 6th place which would give them a place in the Europa League. Frankfurt are likely going to lose their match, and Wolfsburg are at 2/5 to win theirs.
So, did you follow? That’s six teams with it all to play for on Saturday, and I hope I made it clear what they are playing for! Let’s all hope for an exciting twist here and there on the final match day in the Bundesliga.[geot country="US,CA" ]
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