Fiorentina host Genoa in their crucial end of season clash in Serie A on Sunday evening, kicking off at 8:30pm local time. Either team could be relegated if they are to get a damaging result in this match, meaning the significance of this match is huge.

Home Team: Fiorentina

Fiorentina’s season has turned out to be quite a disastrous one, and now manager Vincenzo Montella, who took over last month, has the unenviable task of trying to bring Fiorentina back to become a more established team like they were in their past. It wasn’t too long ago that they humbled Roma 7-1 in the Coppa Italia back in January, but since then there’s been a huge decline.

Fiorentina are currently the worst team in current form, having lost their last five matches, and haven’t won since beating SPAL 4-1 way back in February. None of the defeats have been embarrassing, as they have all been by a single goal, but more worryingly for them, they haven’t scored in over 350 minutes.

Fiorentina were effectively safe from relegation in March, but losing almost every game has not put them mathematically safe going into the final day. Now, if they lose to Genoa, they will be overtaken by their opponents, and then would hope that Empoli don’t win at Inter Milan. If those two scenarios do happen, then Fiorentina would suffer arguably the most shocking relegation in Serie A history.

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Away Team: Genoa

Genoa find themselves in 18th place going into the final day, and will be cursing their luck at Empoli’s recent form. With Chievo and Frosinone already relegated, many had tipped Empoli would be the 3rd team to be relegated. However, they have won their last three matches, which has seen Genoa go into the bottom three.

Of course, Genoa should have acquired more points in recent months, as they have only won once in their last 13 matches, and unbelievably, that came against Champions Juventus. In fact, they are the only team not to lose against Juventus, and have taken four points from them.

Genoa do boast the best record against the top two teams in the division, and yet couldn’t muster enough points against the others to keep themselves safe. They will still have one do-or-die match though, and if they win on Sunday night – they will be safe. A defeat will see them relegated.

Head to Head

In the reverse fixture this season, it was a tepid affair with them both taking a point in a 0-0 draw. As it was a draw, Genoa can overtake Fiorentina on the head to head rule, if they are to win. Genoa beating Fiorentina is a rare occurrence though, as it has only happened once in the last 18 matches.

Genoa last beat Fiorentina back in 2016, and that was in front of their own fans. The last time Genoa won on their travels in Fiorentina, was over two decades ago – it’s not looking promising. The two teams did draw this fixture the last times they met here, and another draw could potentially see them both safe if Empoli lose at Inter Milan.

Predictions and Betting Tips

Fiorentina are slight favourites to win at 7/5, with Genoa at 5/2. For the sides to share the spoils, that is at 6/4. It’s tough to back Fiorentina who are on a 5 match losing streak, but with them playing at home with it all to play for, I expect them to win in a compelling spectacle.

I am anticipating an entertaining match, so I will predict a 3-2 win for Fiorentina at 25/1. I’m feeling wild, and last day matches can be so unpredictable. For the safer bet, you can bet on Fiorentina to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 9/4. There are excellent value odds on correctly predicting the HF/FT outcomes of the match, so I’d back a Genoa/Fiorentina HF/FT bet at an incredible 28/1.

Finally, if you believe that Fiorentina will lose this match, and Empoli will win theirs too against Inter Milan, meaning Fiorentina will be relegated – that is priced at 66/1. It could happen!?

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