Mexico and USA meet in the Gold Cup final on Sunday evening, kicking off at 8:00pm local time in Chicago, USA, meaning it will be a 2:00am start for viewers in the UK. At least Mexico or USA seems to reach the final in almost every edition of the Gold Cup, but this year both teams have made it and it will be the 4th time this has been the final since 2007.

Mexico

It comes as no surprise that Mexico have reached the final of the Gold Cup once again, but it may be hard to believe how tight it has been for them in recent rounds. As expected, they started the campaign with a 7-0 drubbing of Cuba, as they looked to stamp their authority on the competition as one of the favourites. However, each passing game, they have been given a new obstacle which they have struggled to overcome, particularly in the quarter finals and semi-finals.

In the quarters, they were drawn against Costa Rica who are one of the most talented squads in Central America, and it went all the way to penalties after a 1-1 draw. In the semi-finals, again Mexico went to extra time to seal a 1-0 win against Haiti, who frustrated them for the entire match. Raul Jimenez scored both of Mexico’s goals in those games, and overall, the Wolves striker has found the net five times in this tournament. Along with veteran Andrés Guardado, he’ll have the potential to be the difference for Mexico here, who are bidding to win their 11th crown.

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USA

USA suffered heartache when they failed to qualify for the World Cup in 2018, and was seen as their lowest point in international football in over 30 years. They have managed to regroup themselves, as they try to win this Gold Cup, which they are the current holders of. USA made light work of their group, as they scored 11 goals without conceding in the group stage, beating Panama, Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago to finish top.

In the quarter finals, it started to become more challenging for them, as they had to overcome a gutsy Curacao team, which was achieved in a 1-0 victory. The semi-finals against Jamaica saw a repeat of the 2017 final, and star man Christian Pulisic scored two goals as the USA went on to win 3-1. USA have won this tournament four times since 2002, and will hope to get a 5th. In terms of overall crowns, they are four behind Mexico with six triumphs.

Head to Head

Mexico and USA have met each other 71 times in their history, with the Mexico winning on 37 occasions, with USA only winning 20 times. Most of Mexico victories occurred from the 1930’s to the 1980’s, as they went on a streak of 26 matches without losing. In the past decade, which includes 13 meetings, it’s been very evenly matched between the two with Mexico winning five times and USA winning four times, with the rest being draws.

As mentioned previously, they have met each other in the final of Gold Cup on many occasions, including three times in the last 12 years. In 2007, the USA won 2-1, only for Mexico to get their revenge two years later with a 5-0 thumping victory. They met for a 3rd consecutive time in 2011, which Mexico won again via a 4-2 score line.

My Predictions and Betting Tips

Mexico are favourites to win the match in 90 minutes at 21/20, with USA at 14/5. For the teams to draw, meaning it’ll go into extra time, that is at 11/5. To lift the trophy outright, Mexico are at 4/7 with USA at 11/8. Despite Mexico being slight favourites, I would tip USA to win here as it offers better value, and I believe they have been in better form. It may go all the way to extra time or penalties, so do consider backing them to win after extra time at 14/1, or winning on penalties at 10/1.

For a correct score, I’d tip a 1-1 draw at 5/1, or a narrow 2-1 win for the USA at 11/1. To boost earnings significantly, you can add Christian Pulisic to score first in a 2-1 win at an incredible 60/1. For the tipsters, you can win big by guessing the correct HT/FT bet, especially if you choose a different team for each half, for example, a Mexico/USA bet is at 33/1, or a USA/Mexico bet is at 25/1. Finally, let’s hope for loads of goals, as in previous finals, they haven’t been afraid to attack each other – 4.5 goals or more is priced at 7/1.

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